影子银行是指与标准银行体系以外的实体和活动进行的信贷中介，这些实体和活动不受标准银行体系的规则、存款担保保护或央行流动性渠道的约束。例如，货币市场基金、对冲基金、私人信贷、证券化实体、点对点 (P2P) 和在线借贷平台、非银行经纪商以及其他非银行金融机构。
影子银行具有双重功能：一方面，它为主流银行服务不足的领域和地区提供灵活性、创新性和信贷渠道；另一方面，它还存在透明度不足、杠杆率低、期限/流动性不匹配以及在受到冲击时蔓延至其他金融体系的风险。
预计影子银行市场在 2023 年至 2031 年期间的复合年增长率为 5.2%。
增长动力
对替代融资的需求正在增加，特别是在银行基础设施不太发达的新兴经济体。
技术正在赋能新模式：金融科技、区块链、人工智能/机器学习被应用于风险评估、贷款发放、证券化和加速客户入职。
投资者需要在低利率环境下获取更高的收益，并将资金投入非银行信贷、私人信贷基金、结构性信贷产品等。
Regulatory tightening on banks following financial crises has restricted certain of the traditional banking activities, creating gaps that shadow banking entities are able to fill.
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Strategies Used by Market Participants
Innovations / Fintech Associations
Collaborating with technology companies to create platforms that automate lending, risk assessment, securitization, or tokenization (converting real world assets into tradable tokens) to enhance liquidity and minimize costs.
Product Diversification
Adding diversified asset classes (private credit, high‐yield bonds, money market instruments, structured credit) and venturing into new forms of lending (invoice or supply chain finance, green finance, etc.).
Geographic Expansion
Shadow banking is expanding faster in Asia Pacific, Latin America, Middle East Africa on account of increased digital penetration, emerging middle classes, and policy openness.
Regulatory Engagement Risk Management
Though shadow banking is less regulated, several players are voluntarily using stricter risk controls, enhancing transparency, hedging liquidity mismatches, and meeting with regulators to influence policy.
Key Segments
By Type
Money Market Funds
Bond Funds
Finance Companies
Special Purpose Entities
By Application
Securitization
Alternative Credit
High-Interest Savings
Innovative Financial Products
Future Trends
Digital DeFi / Tokenization
Tokenization of real‐world assets (real estate, art, infrastructure etc.), lending based on smart contracts, decentralized finance platforms, will play a greater role increasingly. This has the potential for higher settlement speed, reduced costs, and cheaper capital flows.
ESG and Sustainable Finance Integration
Growing investor demand and regulatory pressure will push shadow banking entities to embed environmental, social, and governance criteria into their investment decisions and lending. For example, green bond securitizations, financing of renewable energy etc.
Regulatory Tightening Oversight
Regulators globally are increasingly concerned about risks: liquidity mismatches, lack of transparency, contagion to traditional banking. Reporting rules, exposure limits, stress testing including nonbank entities are likely to increase.
Emerging Markets Growth
Most developing economies offer extensive opportunity as a result of underpenetration of customers (SMEs, retail consumers), less developed banking industry, fintech penetration growth.
Key Players Recent Developments
UBS Group AG
UBS has been analyzing its exposure in its private credit / investment funds to the failure of U.S. auto parts supplier First Brands. The exposure is more than US$500 million through debt and supply chain finance deals including through its O'Connor hedge fund business.
One of O'Connor's funds owned approximately 30% of its portfolio tied to First Brands ~9.1% direct invoice financing and ~21.4% indirect exposure through customer invoices.
UBS disposed of US$8 billion of securitized product assets (from the now defunct Credit Suisse) to Apollo to streamline and decapitalize non core portfolio complexity.
Regulatory changes: Swiss regulators are imposing stricter capital requirements and requiring improved emergency/resolution planning particularly after UBS's takeover of Credit Suisse.
Standard Chartered PLC
Standard Chartered is actively engaged in digital asset ecosystems: onboarding or growing custody trading solutions, tokenization projects (i.e., Real World Asset tokenization) and regulated tokenized money market funds in some jurisdictions.
It introduced a new fund (Variable Capital Company sub fund) with multi sector credit exposure ("Signature Select Global Income Plus") for high net worth customers. This comprises of high yield bonds, emerging markets debt, bank loans etc.evidencing Standard Chartered's movement towards private / nonbank credit space.
Standard Chartered is growing wealth management and cross-border investment business, recruiting private bankers in major markets, establishing centers, focusing on net new money growth.
JPMorgan Chase Co.
JPMorgan has tremendously boosted its exposure to private credit / direct lending, committing substantial amounts from its balance sheet and serving as advisor on big deals in nonbank financing.
New development: JPMorgan is considering allowing clients to use cryptocurrency assets (such as Bitcoin, Ethereum) as collateral for loans an indication of willingness to integrate regulated banking with newer value/asset classes.
Opportunities
Meet unserved credit demand: SMEs, start-ups, unbanked/underbanked populations, particularly in emerging markets, are large opportunity.
Enhance yields for investors: With traditional yield products under strain, private credit, structured finance and alternative risk taking offer potential returns.
Technology enabled efficiency: AI, ML, blockchain, tokenization can lower cost, accelerate operations, enhance risk management.
New product products: Green / ESG finance, asset tokenization, cross border lending, climate related credit products.
Risks Challenges
Regulatory compliance risk: With increasing oversight the nonbank institutions would be subjected to increased regulatory burden. Differences between jurisdictions make international operations challenging.
Liquidity / maturity mismatches: Numerous shadow banking institutions lend long and borrow short; in illiquid markets, drying up of liquidity can lead to fire sales.
不透明度和交易对手风险：不确定性可能掩盖风险；传统银行通常会间接暴露风险。
信用风险集中：某些资金对一个借款人或一个部门有较大的风险敞口。
未来趋势
更多的监管：更多的报告、风险敞口限制，甚至可能对主要非银行金融机构的资本或流动性要求。
ESG为中心：无论是在风险评估还是产品构成上。
其他混合模式：现有银行结成联盟或将影子银行活动内部化，并实施更严格的监管。
非银行行业的额外压力测试：监管机构可能会要求改进风险管理和情景规划。
结论
影子银行已不再是金融业的边缘领域，而是国际信贷流动的核心，尤其体现在现有银行服务不足或寻求更高回报的领域。如今，技术、需求和监管套利推动着经济增长，大多数非银行机构蓬勃发展。然而，它们带来的威胁——流动性错配、缺乏透明度、杠杆率、监管漏洞——却非常真实，且日益严重。
常见问题 (FAQ)
影子银行违法吗？
不是。影子银行是合法的金融活动，不受银行正常监管。诚然，由于监管力度较小，一些银行会采用风险更高的方式开展业务（例如，监管力度较小、流动性保障较弱）。
为什么借款人和投资者转向影子银行而不是正规银行？
影子银行通常提供更快的信贷渠道、更广泛的条款、更高的投资者回报，或者在主要银行受到监管、资本或风险偏好限制时提供信贷渠道。
影子银行如何造成系统性风险？
由于影子银行机构规模可能很大、杠杆率高或与传统银行存在关联，在压力之下，流动性或估值问题可能会蔓延开来。此外，许多影子银行缺乏同等的保护措施（存款保险、央行流动性准入），因此冲击可能导致资产突然抛售，并引发危机蔓延。
正在考虑或使用哪种类型的法规？
这些措施包括提高非银行实体与银行之间风险敞口的报告要求；制定影子银行实体认定法规；监管货币市场基金和流动性错配；进行压力测试；以及偶尔的杠杆限制。例如，在欧盟，欧洲银行管理局已经发布了确定影子银行实体的技术标准。
投资者如何分析影子银行机会？
需要考虑的关键因素是透明度、资产质量、集中风险、流动性和杠杆、监管环境、交易对手风险、风险管理以及机构如何管理压力情况。
